Except for the last decade, for all other periods the solid line of observed global mean temperature trend is above the 95 percentile line of natural variability as determined by 3 computer models. SAR page423.
Statistical Significance of the observed warming trend tested against 3 computer model assessments of natural variability. Figure 8.3, p423, Working Group 1 report, IPCC Second Assessment
Enthusiasm, Scepticism and Science 
